Could the political turmoil in Galmudug and Jubbaland states possibly stage confrontations?

Tensions between Somali Federal government and regional states of Jubbaland and Galmudug remain high following the elections that were recently held in Kismayo and Dhusamareeb on August and February respectively

The tension escalated after the leader of the moderate Islamist group Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama’ah, Sheikh Shakir Ali Hassan was declared as the new president of Galmudug state in the capital Galmudug of Dhusamareb by Ahlu-Sunah Waljama’a parliament and the federal government rejected Jubbaland election describing it a “self-appointed” process that was not in line with electoral process set out by the Ministry of Interior and other relevant provisions.

SITUATION IN DUSAMAREB

A source in Dhusamareeb told Mustaqbal that Somali special forces drawn from the elite Danab on Wednesday took control of the police headquarter, the central bank and the district administration in the town where they were earlier manned by Somali police force.

Military officials who asked to be anonymous told Mustaqbal radio that military forces loyal to the leader of Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama’ah, Sheikh Shakir Ali Hassan were planning to seize control of government offices in Galgaduud’s capital Dhusamareeb.

There is an ongoing effort to establish a new administration in Dhusamareb town that will remove the current administration which is said to be loyal to the leader of Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama’ah, Sheikh Shakir Ali Hassan.

The reason behind the change in Galmudug administration was as a result of Dusamareeb mayor Nur Elmi Abdulle who was reported to have declined to attend a meeting that was meant to support the newly elected president Ahmed Abdi Kaariye. Talks between the elders of Galmudug state and the newly elected administration suggested that the mayor of Dhusamareeb be sacked since he emerged as a bone in a throat to the newly elected administration.

SITUATION IS KISMAYO

The president of Jubbaland,a critic to federal government of Somalia Ahmed Madobe was elected in kismayo in August last year amid claims the electoral process lacked transparency.

The election sparked tense as opposing Madobe’s rule formed a separate electoral commission and elected a rival parliament and president, Abdirashib Hidig,

Their move has raised fears of violence and a lack of stability in a region already suffering from attacks and the heavy presence of al-Shabab.

The arrest of Jubbaland security minister Abdirashid Janan also stroked tensions as Jubbaland authorities termed his arrest as illegal and politically motivated.

A UN report in 2017 accused Abdirashid Janan of horrific crimes including killings, torture, unlawful detention and illegal renditions.

Last week the federal government of Somalia has deployed Somali Special troops trained by the Turkish government to Gedo region. A move that could set stage for confrontations between federal government troops and jubbaland forces.

General Abass Ibrahim Gurey, a senior commander of Jubbaland state, who spoke to jubbaland forces in the region warned of possible war that could ratchet up the conflict between the federal forces and Jubbaland forces.

For the second week in a row, a conflict has slowly built up threatening to escalate to a possible genocide in the troubled region.