How Disagreement Over Election Timelines Scuttled Somalia’s NCC and Caused a Deadlock

A week-long National Consultation Conference (NCC) in Mogadishu has ended without agreement, highlighting significant divisions among Somali political leaders over the future of the country’s election process. The deadlock has been primarily driven by disagreements over how and when to implement direct elections and unify national and regional electoral schedules.

The meeting, which included President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre, and leaders from the five federal member states, had aimed to finalize the electoral roadmap first agreed upon in May 2023. That agreement had introduced the concept of direct elections, proposing synchronized election schedules at the national and regional levels and the creation of a single 15-member national election and border committee to oversee all elections across Somalia.

However, this week’s talks have become mired in two key points of contention: the timing of direct regional elections and the structure of the election management committees.

Sources indicate that most participants, including President Mohamud, support the roadmap and have called for regional elections to be held next year, followed by national presidential elections in June 2026. The president also favors the creation of a single, centralized election committee to manage all elections at both the federal and regional levels, aligning with the previous agreement.

However, Jubaland’s President, Ahmed Mohamed Islam (Ahmed Madobe), rejected these proposals, leading to a deadlock. Madobe argued that holding regional elections next year would require an extension of regional leaders’ terms, something he opposes. Instead, he advocates for establishing separate regional election committees in addition to a national one, a stance that contrasts with the president’s vision of a unified electoral body. Additionally, Madobe’s team voiced concerns that conducting direct elections in certain regions while others, like Puntland, continue to use indirect systems would create electoral inconsistencies and further fragment the process.
A separate closed door meeting between Madobe, President Hassan Sheikh and prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre could not change his stance.
Madobe traveled back to Kismayo in protest and the talk which Puntland has also continued to protest Scuttled.

The disagreement came to a head as Madobe’s position conflicted with the broader consensus among regional leaders, many of whom support the idea of a one-year extension to align election schedules across the country. Critics accused Madobe of backtracking from the agreement he signed in May 2023, which had committed to the electoral reforms currently under discussion.

As a result of the impasse, Jubaland is now expected to proceed with its indirect regional leadership election in November 2024, further complicating efforts to create a unified electoral timeline for Somalia. The lack of resolution at the NCC raises concerns about potential delays and further disputes in the lead-up to the country’s next elections.

Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre, in a televised address, confirmed that the consultations are still ongoing and emphasized that a final communique would be issued once discussions have concluded. However, the deadlock over these key electoral issues suggests that Somalia’s political leaders face significant challenges in reaching a consensus, particularly with regards to implementing direct elections across all regions.The prime Minister avoided the deadlock despite the glaring lack of progress in the meeting.