The Shabelle River has surpassed the high-risk flood threshold at Beledweyne in the Hiiraan region of Somalia, approaching a critical level that threatens severe flooding, the Somalia Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM) under the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned. The flood advisory issued on August 24th 2024, extends to key districts in the Hirshabelle state, including Beledweyne, Bulo Burte, Jalalaqsi, Jowhar, and Balcad, as well as surrounding areas.
According to the advisory, the situation has been exacerbated by the continuous downstream flow of water from the upper catchments in the central Ethiopian Highlands. Despite a lack of recent rainfall in both Somalia and eastern Ethiopia, the Shabelle River system has taken more than a month to respond to heavy rains observed in the Ethiopian Highlands, leading to the current rise in water levels.
“On 24 May 2024, the river level at Beledweyne dropped below the bankful level of 8.30 meters. However, on 11 July 2024, the river began a slow but steady increase, eventually surpassing the moderate flood risk level on 8 August 2024. In the last 48 hours, the water level at Beledweyne has reached a critical point, currently standing 10 centimeters above the high flood risk threshold of 7.30 meters. This significant rise signals an urgent need for heightened monitoring and flood preparedness, particularly at vulnerable points along the riverbank.”
The pattern of rising water levels has been observed downstream as well. At Bulo Burte, the river level increased from a low of 2.63 meters on 14 July 2024 to 6.52 meters by 24 August 2024, just above the moderate flood risk level of 6.50 meters. A similar trend has been noted at Jowhar, where the river level began rising on 13 July 2024. While the level has stabilized over the past week, it remains 22 centimeters below the moderate flood risk level of 5.00 meters.
However, Jowhar and Balcad have already experienced flooding due to breakages in the riverbanks, rather than overbank spillage. The floods at Balcad have affected 27 villages, with approximately 10,000 people now in urgent need of emergency assistance, including shelter, water, sanitation, hygiene (WASH) services, healthcare, and nutritional support.
Looking ahead, the FAO has forecast that river levels will continue to rise due to the delayed response to rainfall in the Ethiopian Highlands, although they are not expected to reach bankful levels in the coming week.
